My top 5 budgeting apps + Trump's big dive

Hi everyone,

Interest rate cuts are now officially dead until at least the second half of next year, following strong employment and consumer confidence data this week.

As we head into Christmas and the summer holidays, the average Australian is feeling pretty good - and ready to party. I’m not sure the Reserve Bank would be too happy about that, with inflation remaining stubbornly high. If the celebrations get a little too lively, the RBA might start turning its attention back to interest rate hikes to cool things down. Following the release of a stronger-than-expected jobs report, financial markets cut the probability of a May 2026 rate cut from 70 per cent to just 25 per cent.

In this week’s newsletter:

• Surprise rebound in employment.

• Australians ready to party.

• Property Pain Point #1 ... the Government 5 per cent Deposit Scheme.

• Property Pain Point #2 ... solving the chronic supply shortage.

• More Australians dobbing in tax cheats.

• Superannuation returns stay strong.

• Five of the best apps for tracking spending and budgeting.

• Is the political pendulum swinging against Trump?

Surprise rebound in employment

After months of economic data showing a weakening jobs market, October saw the most jobs created in six months - the biggest employment growth since April.

It certainly justifies the RBA decision to keep rates on hold and also their revised unemployment forecast, which expects only a tiny rise in unemployment for the foreseeable future.

Employment increased by a massive 42,200 positions in October, from September’s increase of 12,800 positions. That was well above market expectations for a 20,000 gain.

There has been some media analysis attributing the jobs growth to casual retail hiring ahead of Black Friday and Christmas. I don’t think that’s right. The hiring spree in October was driven by full-time jobs, which rose by 55,300, following a steep 44,800 drop in permanent roles in August and a modest 6,500 gain in September. Part-time employment fell by 13,100 last month after aggregate gains of 41,400 over the previous two months. Christmas retail hiring typically involves casual positions, so October’s rise in full-time jobs points to a much more solid and sustainable employment market.

Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to 4.3 per cent in October from a near four-year high of 4.5 per cent. Importantly, the full-time unemployment rate fell from 4.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent.

Across states and territories, Tasmania has the lowest unemployment rate of 3.9 per cent in October, followed by Western Australia (4.1 per cent), Queensland (4.2 per cent), and NSW and South Australia (both 4.3 per cent). But the ACT (4.5 per cent), Victoria (4.7 per cent) and Northern Territory (5.2 per cent) have the highest jobless rates.

Australians ready to party

Property values are rising, superannuation fund returns are strong, and anyone who wants a job can get one - that’s a strong combination of factors underpinning Australians’ confidence, and it seems to be offsetting the disappointment of no interest rate cuts and a rising cost of living.

For the first time since February 2022 there are more optimists than pessimists in Australia, with the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in November coming in at 103.8 points - a big jump from 92.1 points in October. 100 points is the level where optimism is balanced with pessimism.

This was also the most positive result in seven years, once the sugar-hit effects of the record-low 0.1 per cent RBA interest rates during COVID are excluded - and it’s the second-biggest monthly gain on record since the series began in 1993, outside the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, when government stimulus programs artificially buoyed consumer spirits during dark times.

So who is driving this optimism?

I was fascinated to follow IFM Investors’ deep dive into where it is coming from.

Firstly, it seems Labor voters are very happy with the way the government is handling power and even Coalition voters are starting to be happier with Canberra, although there will always be a gap where rusted-on Conservatives will have nothing good to say about Labor - and vice versa.

City slickers are more optimistic than those in the bush, despite what appear to be pretty strong agricultural commodity prices. I’m not sure why this would be the case, but I wonder if those on the land are always a little more sanguine because often their fortunes are tied to the weather and the uncertainty of commodity prices. They take a more pragmatic approach to life than their city cousins.

Blokes are more optimistic than women. Hmm ... not to be too brutal, but I reckon women are way more realistic than men because often they are the ones balancing the family budget and understanding how cost-of-living is making it tough to make ends meet.

And no surprises here ... if you own your own home and are mortgage-free, you’re laughing. You don’t care about interest rates (except on your savings and investments), and you’re in a much better position to cope with inflation. You have every right to feel optimistic compared with those with a home loan who are going through the disappointment of no interest rate cuts for the foreseeable future, or a renter who is being squeezed by rising rents and a lack of suitable properties.

Property Pain Point #1: The 5 per cent deposit scheme is boosting demand and values

Up until now, everyone has been making informed judgements on just how much the federal government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme has been impacting the residential property market. But now, property research group Cotality has the early facts.

Cotality says the unusually strong home value increases in October coincided with the expansion of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. The policy enables eligible first home buyers to secure a low-deposit home loan without lender’s mortgage insurance. From October 1, it was scaled up to unlimited places and income eligibility, and the price caps associated with the scheme were increased across most regions.

So how did it impact property values in its first month of operation? National home values rose 1.1 per cent in October, the fastest monthly pace of growth since May 2023. But monthly gains had already been accelerating since the first interest rate cut in February, and values were also buoyed by the traditional ‘spring selling season’ and low levels of stock.

According to Cotality data, properties with an estimated value below the new caps of the scheme did outperform in October, but this has been the case for some time, as serviceability and affordability constraints have increasingly encouraged higher-income buyers to lower-value market segments. The level of outperformance was also within historic ranges for most markets.

In some markets, there has been a more notable increase in values below the scheme’s thresholds, suggesting a localised market impact. These were in desirable markets of Sydney (Northern Beaches, North Sydney and Hornsby, Eastern Suburbs) and Melbourne (Inner East), and the popular regional centres of Wide Bay, the Central Coast and Geelong.

Nationally in October, dwellings with value estimates falling within the price caps of the 5 per cent deposit scheme increased 1.2 per cent, compared with 1 per cent for dwellings above the caps. To put that into perspective, lower-value properties have outperformed the higher end of the market for the better part of two years.

Between the house and unit markets, houses with estimated values below the price caps recorded a larger outperformance than units. National house values below the caps rose 1.3 per cent in the month, compared with 1 per cent for houses above the caps. Units with estimated values below the caps saw value growth closer to the average for those above the caps.

Property Pain Point #2: Solving the supply shortage

I’ve always said property markets are driven by demand and supply. It’s that simple. Apart from higher demand, supply of properties to meet demand is getting to a stage of chronic shortage. And it’s getting worse by the day. Ray White’s Chief Economist, Nerida Conisbee, has produced the below research which shows just how chronic the shortage is becoming.

While Nerida acknowledges that the federal government’s goal to deliver 1.2 million homes over five years is the right one - and would finally allow us to catch up on the homes we haven’t built since 2007 - she believes the challenge lies not in the target itself but in the capacity to achieve it.

We have been under-building for almost two decades. Even if demand moderated, we would still need to deliver around 225,000 to 240,000 homes each year to restore balance in the property market. Completions currently sit closer to 190,000, and the deficit grows every year we miss that mark.

The major blockage to boosting housing supply is that the workforce required to reach that level of output simply doesn’t exist. The Housing Industry Association estimates that meeting the national target would require an increase of about 30 per cent in skilled trades.

That’s before accounting for retirements or workers leaving the industry. Even with record migration, faster training and higher participation, that kind of growth is implausible.

Nerida believes the solution could lie in changing the traditional way we build houses. Modern Methods of Construction - known globally as MMC, or modular building - shift much of the process off-site. Walls, floors and entire rooms are manufactured in factories, transported to site, and assembled in days. It’s faster, cleaner, and requires fewer workers on site, effectively substituting labour with precision manufacturing.

Australia currently has low uptake, with only around five per cent of new homes using some form of modular construction. In Sweden, it is particularly high at around 84 per cent, while Japan sits at 13 per cent, the United Kingdom at 16 per cent, and the United States at about three per cent.

The irony, according to Nerida, is that our conditions (like high wages, labour shortages and strong housing demand) are exactly those that make modular construction work elsewhere. In fact, consulting company McKinsey & Company identified Australia’s east coast as one of the most suitable markets in the world for modular construction, alongside California, London and major German cities.

Gets you thinking, doesn't it, that this may be a good solution for our housing crisis?

More Australians are dobbing in tax cheats

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has hit a major milestone, receiving more than 300,000 tip-offs from the community about tax avoidance and other dishonest behaviours since July 2019. In the 2024–25 financial year alone, almost 50,000 red flags were raised by people who spotted something suspicious.

Most tip-offs related to shadow-economy activity such as demanding cash payments for work or incorrectly claiming business expenses. The ATO estimates that the community is missing out on billions in stolen taxes each year from this behaviour - weakening funding for essential services including health, education, transport, infrastructure and disaster response.

Tip-offs help level the playing field and protect honest businesses. This year, Australians reported businesses and individuals who:

• Didn’t declare their income.

• Demanded or paid for work in cash to avoid tax.

• Lived lifestyles that didn’t match their known income.

• Failed to report all sales.

In 2024–25, New South Wales residents lodged 15,907 tip-offs, followed closely by Victorians with 11,890 and Queenslanders with 10,630.

While Sydney and Melbourne topped the list overall, red flags aren’t just flying in the capital cities. The top five regional areas for tip-offs this year were mostly in Queensland, with one in NSW. These were:

Newcastle in New South Wales, and Robina, Sunshine Coast Hinterland, Townsville, and Toowoomba in Queensland.

The top three industries seeing a surge in red flags this year are:

• Building and construction.

• Cafés and restaurants.

• Hairdressing and beauty services.

Tip-offs often come from customers, employees, other businesses, and even family and friends. The ATO receives almost 1,000 tip-offs every week from people who know of, or strongly suspect, tax evasion.

In 2024–25, around 85 per cent of tip-offs analysed were found to be suitable for further investigation.

Superannuation returns stay strong

The strong run of positive returns for superannuation funds continued in October, with superannuation research house SuperRatings estimating that the median balanced option returned 1.3 per cent to members over the month. October marks the seventh consecutive month of positive returns, and makes this year only the sixth time in the past 25 years that the first four months of the financial year have all delivered positive results.

Share markets continued driving a good return for October. While international shares remain the key driver, Australian shares had a better month, and outcomes were positive across key asset classes.

The median growth option grew by an estimated 1.4 per cent in October, while the median capital stable option grew by 0.8 per cent.

Pension returns were also strong over October, with the median balanced pension option increasing by an estimated 1.4 per cent. The median capital stable pension option is estimated to grow 0.9 per cent over the month, while the median growth pension option is estimated to rise 1.5 per cent for the same period.

5 of the best apps for tracking bills and budgeting better

A good money app should do three things well: show you where your cash is going, warn you about upcoming bills, and nudge you into better habits (without lecturing you). The apps below tick all those boxes in different ways.

Some are simple ‘envelope’ budgeters, while others use open banking to pull in your transactions automatically. Pick the one you’ll actually stick with, because I reckon consistency beats complexity every time.

Most of the major bank apps have a sort of budgeting or bill tracking tool (Westpac and CommBank are probably the best), but the independent apps are of a higher standard.

So, here’s my take on the best bill-tracking and budgeting apps Aussies can use right now. I’ve kicked the tyres and checked the features, so you can trust these tools will actually make your day-to-day money management easier.

Goodbudget

Goodbudget is the digital version of the old-school envelopes system - pop dollars into ‘envelopes’ (for groceries, rent, fuel) and spend to plan. It shines for couples because you can sync budgets across phones so everyone sees the same balances.

The big modern change is that Goodbudget now has a premium tier ($10/mth or $80/yr) with automatic bank transaction sync, which gets rid of most of the manual drudgery that used to scare people off. Yes, you’ll have to pay for the top-tier features, but I think it’s well worth the money ... and really, you’re investing in your future (richer) self.

Gather

Gather is a homegrown app built for Aussies who want a complete bird’s-eye view of their money coming in and money going out. It connects your accounts, tracks bills and subscriptions, auto-categorises spending, and lets you set and stay on top of your goals – all wrapped up in a very clean interface.

There’s a free plan you can try, and then paid tiers ($10-12/mth) if it ends up suiting your lifestyle, which makes it a low-risk trial if you’re just getting started. If you’re overwhelmed by feature-packed dashboards, Gather’s simplicity will feel like a deep breath.

Frollo

If you want automation and insights, Frollo is hard to beat.

It’s a free app that uses open banking to securely connect to participating banks, then helps you track spending, set budgets and goals, and keep an eye on your overall financial health. In practice, that means fewer spreadsheets and far less “Where did that money go?” investigating at the end of the month.

Frollo’s whole pitch is about smarter money management done safely – and for most people, that combo of open banking plus clear visuals is exactly what sticks.

Beem

Beem isn’t a full budgeting suite, but it’s brilliant for the social side of money. You can send or request cash instantly with just a mobile number, split bills on the spot, and keep a record of who owes what. It works with most debit cards and, importantly, is a standalone company backed by eftpos – useful context if you like to know who’s behind your payment apps.

If your biggest budget leaks are “I’ll transfer you later” promises, Beem closes that gap.

WeMoney

WeMoney connects your accounts so you can see your whole financial life on one screen, from transfers to debts and goals.

The app leans into behaviour changes – pointing out money hiding in your bills like unused subscriptions – and adds a community element so you can learn from other Aussies on the same journey.

The app also tracks your credit score and says the average member improves theirs by an average of 63 points after nine months, which is handy if a loan refinance is on the horizon.

It’s a compelling all-rounder for people who want bill tracking as well as some motivation.

How to choose?

If you’re a pen-and-paper type who wants strict discipline, start with Goodbudget’s envelopes. If you hate data entry and want your bank feeds to do all the heavy lifting, Frollo or Gather will feel seamless. If your pain point is group costs and social IOUs, add Beem. And if you want a ‘do more’ money hub with habits and credit tracking, WeMoney is a strong shout.

The right answer is the one you’ll open every week.

Security and data protection

A good finance app should be upfront about security and what it does with your data.

Frollo explicitly uses the Consumer Data Right rails. WeMoney has bank-grade security, end-to-end encryption and says banking logins aren’t stored on its servers. With Beem, the backing of eftpos and support for participating debit cards should give you comfort for quick payments.

But regardless of what I say, always read the security page before you connect anything.

You don’t need the ‘perfect’ app, you need one that will help you see bills coming in and keep your goals front and centre. Start simple, set one or two alerts, and build from there.

Get your system working and I reckon you’ll feel the difference within the first pay cycle. The goal isn’t a prettier budget, but rather having more money left over for the things that matter to you.

Is the pendulum swinging away from Trump?

Last week, the Democrats won some important electoral victories in the US after being pummelled by Trump a year ago. While the wins were not a surprise in Virginia, New Jersey or New York City, the margin of victory has given the party its first glimmer of hope since their 2024 thrashing - and could provide significant momentum going into the all-important mid-term elections next year.

President Trump really needs to focus on turning around his current opinion poll numbers.